Visionary Words on the Primary Device We'll Have with Us All the Time in 5 Years
Not my words, but my little 02 on some wise words
Iām a big fan of mobile devices, maybe even more of a fanatic. I have been for many years, since before the first smartphone ever hit the market. So when somebody I have a lot of respect for, and who has a proven track record of success in this space, shares thoughts about the near future of mobile devices, Iām paying attention.
That somebody Iām referencing on this occasion is Carl Pei. He is the founder of Nothing, makers of the Nothing Phone and the very lovely Nothing Phone 2 - which Iāve been using as my all day use phone for close to three weeks now. He was also the co-founder of OnePlus, a very successful Android smartphone vendor which gave us the original āflagship killerā OnePlus One phone back in 2014.
The Verge published an interview with Carl Pei just a few weeks ago, and itās in that interview that he shares thoughts about the one device everybody will have with them all the time 5 years from now. Hereās most of that slice of the interview:
Okay. So do you think the phone keeps being the thing for a long time? Both for you and for the world?
I think so, yeah.Ā Ā
Like if you fast forward out five years from now, is the phone still the primary thing that everybody has with them all the time?
A computing device made up of a large screen with some camera capability, I think, is gonna be the dominating form factor for a long time.
People have said voice might be taking over, or immersion and virtual reality. But I think those are more like an addition to the main form factor. ā¦
This came after some back and forth on whether the dominant form factor would be glasses or headsets. Iām glad to see that Pei doesnāt think so, and I hope heās right. Pei then talks about how the biggest changes may come - and should come - in the OS and apps on our mobile devices, while mentioning the improvements weāre currently seeing in AI.
Then thereās an answer from Peiās that is a great take on where smartphones have become stale and a new metaphor is needed:
Like, okay, itās an app machine right now. Itās an app launcher that actually hasnāt changed since the Symbian days, right? If you want to remove that metaphor, you need to create a new metaphor thatās way more efficient than before and easy to understand and easy to use.
Finally, there are his words on what that new metaphor could look like:
I think it needs to slowly augment away the apps. Today, weāre using some really simple, mindless-scrolling apps, right? What if we wanted to accomplish more complicated tasks like 3D modeling or photo editing, or I donāt know what? Itās actually quite difficult to learn how to use these new apps. Maybe we can just tell the phone what we need to do, and it would use those apps for us without the apps even being visible in the foreground. Right. I think that could be enough utility to transition to a new metaphor.
That is a future mobile device I would very much like to see, and use. Taking the onus off us, users, and having smarter AI-assisted apps work their magic in the background feels like a far better way to use a mobile device. AI is not perfect; it is infamous at the moment for its āhallucinationsā and mistakes. Over the next 5 years it will improve (using the default word here) exponentially. Heck, itās improving exponentially by the week right now.
We wonāt have to accept 100% of what AI churns out if that new metaphor does pan out. I would not even want to do that, no matter how advanced and capable AI becomes. I think this could be a great example of where AI augments our abilities rather than fully replacing them.
Just in case itās not already clear, Iām excited by the prospect of this 5-years-from-now mobile device and that fresh approach to how we interact with mobile apps.
What do you all think? Do Carl Peiās thoughts sound realistic to you? Promising?
I definitely think is Pei is an ultimate innovator entrepreneur. however his remarks in The Verge in 2021 of "remove barriers between human people & technology" almost , again almost, sounds too transhumanistic for me , at least if that's what he direction he was leaning. I have no
doubt it's a possibility maybe even probability, but one that I might not see in my lifetime as I'm 63. Then again the speed at which AI is "growing, being taught" etc is so fast its mind-blowing. I read an article published 2018 by The pewter.org ( only 5 yrs, right) on AI thoughts, concerns, hopefuls, algorithms, ethics all covered and already every single 1 has happened. All of them.
I've been lucky enough just to be small part of a beta testing on a SGE model and I can see both the absolutely extraordinary and world changes that's going to occur both good and maybe problematic, but I believe the pluses will far outweigh the minus points. sorry for rambling on.
https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2018/12/10/artificial-intelligence-and-the-future-of-humans/
Interesting perspective, Patrick. Thanks for sharing!
In the future it wouldn't surprise me if the phone becomes more "automated." For instance when you are scheduled to attend a meeting the phone goes into do not disturb mode....or worse than that, the AI kicks in and your phone records the meeting and ultimately emails a transcript.
I doubt the phones will be like our desktops. For instance trying to do serious editing work on a phone doesn't make sense.
I can see how the phone will continue to be central to our day-to-day lives.
Thanks! Ernie Hayden